Russia’s UN ambassador Vasily Nebenzia accused Latvia on Monday of allowing Ukraine to launch drone strikes from its territory, threatening military retaliation and claiming NATO would not defend the Baltic state. Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Braze called the allegations “a disinformation campaign,” while the US warned Moscow there was “no place for threats” against NATO members. The confrontation marks the Kremlin’s most specific public accusation against a NATO country since the invasion of Ukraine.
The SVR, Russia’s foreign intelligence service, went further on Sunday. It named five Latvian military bases where it said Ukrainian soldiers were already stationed to prepare attacks against Russia. “The abject Russophobia of Latvia's current rulers proved stronger than their critical thinking and sense of self-preservation,” the SVR statement read. Latvia’s representative at the UN, Sanita Pavluta-Deslandes, fired back. “Lies and aggressive disinformation and threats are a sign of despair and weakness,” she said.
The United States backed Riga. Washington’s envoy warned Russia that threats against NATO members were unacceptable. Behind the diplomatic language lies a calculated escalation.
Maris Andzans, director of the Centre for Geopolitical Studies in Riga, told FRANCE 24 the accusations were “uncharacteristically specific.” That specificity matters. Previous Russian claims against Baltic states were vague. This time, Moscow named bases.
Elina Vroblevska, deputy director of the Centre for East European Policy Studies in Riga, sees a political play. “This signals more of a political and rhetorical escalation than a military one,” she told FRANCE 24. The timing is no accident. The allegations surfaced days after a drone attack on the Moscow region on May 11-12.
The Kremlin offered no real political response to that strike. Instead, it turned up the rhetorical heat. “They’re telling their domestic audience, ‘Those drones coming in are a threat and there is a threat from a NATO country,’” Vroblevska said. The narrative serves a dual purpose: it deflects from military setbacks in Ukraine and stokes fear at home.
Christian Kaunert, a security specialist at the University of South Wales, agreed. “The last thing Russia would want right now is to have a full NATO intervention on behalf of the Baltic states,” he told FRANCE 24. “As Russia is not doing particularly well on the battlefield, it is important for the Kremlin to promote the narrative of a conflict not only against Ukraine, but against NATO.” He predicted similar accusations could soon target Poland or Germany. Latvia is fertile ground for such operations. It has the largest Russian-speaking population among the Baltic states.
Polls show trust in NATO and blame for the war rank lower there than in most member states. “Russia has more fruitful soil in Latvia, especially in eastern Latvia,” Andzans said. The SVR also chose a moment of political instability. Prime Minister Evika Silina resigned on May 14 after a series of scandals partly linked to Russia.
Ukrainian drones had crashed on Latvian territory in early May. The defence minister was sacked. Coalition tensions boiled over.
Silina stepped down. Those drone crashes carry a Russian fingerprint. “Russia has been accused of redirecting Ukrainian drones using electronic warfare capabilities towards the Baltic states,” Andzans told FRANCE 24. The goal, Vroblevska said, is to “make the Baltic states crack and put pressure on Ukraine to move their targets further away from their border.”
The Kremlin particularly wants Kyiv to stop sending drones toward the Saint Petersburg region, Andzans added. Hybrid warfare is not new. But the tools are evolving.
The Institute for the Study of War, a US think tank, noted on May 19 that “the Kremlin often uses the SVR to spread extreme and unfounded narratives intended to destabilise other countries and justify potential Russian interference and aggression.”
What this actually means for your family. If you live in a NATO country, the direct military risk remains low. Experts agree a Russian attack on Latvia is unlikely.
The real danger is political. Disinformation campaigns erode trust in institutions. They exploit ethnic divisions.
They test alliance solidarity. The policy says one thing. The reality says another.
NATO’s Article 5 guarantees collective defence. But Russia’s message is that the alliance would not act. That message is aimed at Latvian voters, not just Russian ones.
It seeks to weaken public support for NATO and for aid to Ukraine. Both sides claim victory. Here are the numbers.
Latvia has spent 3.25% of GDP on defence this year, well above NATO’s 2% target. It hosts a multinational battlegroup led by Canada. Russian forces are bogged down in eastern Ukraine, where they have made only incremental gains at enormous cost.
A new front in the Baltics would stretch them beyond breaking point. Why It Matters: A Russian military threat against a NATO member, even if rhetorical, tests the alliance’s credibility. If Moscow can intimidate small states without consequence, it weakens the deterrent that has kept Europe’s peace since 1949.
For Latvia, the stakes are existential. Its 1.8 million people live next door to a nuclear power that has repeatedly violated international law. Key takeaways: - Russia’s SVR named five Latvian bases it claims host Ukrainian drone operators, the most specific accusation yet against a NATO country. - The UN Security Council showdown saw Latvia and the US reject the allegations as disinformation, while Moscow threatened military retaliation. - Experts say the escalation is political, not military, aimed at a domestic audience and at exploiting political instability in Latvia. - The Kremlin’s hybrid tactics include redirecting Ukrainian drones into Baltic airspace to pressure Kyiv and sow discord among NATO allies.
What comes next is a test of nerves. Latvia must form a new government while under a Russian information assault. NATO will likely issue statements of solidarity.
But the real response will be measured in public opinion polls and in the next round of military aid to Ukraine. Watch for similar accusations against Poland or Germany, as Kaunert warned. The Kremlin is exporting its conflict, one unfounded claim at a time.
Key Takeaways
— - Russia's SVR named five Latvian bases it claims host Ukrainian drone operators, the most specific accusation yet against a NATO country.
— - The UN Security Council showdown saw Latvia and the US reject the allegations as disinformation, while Moscow threatened military retaliation.
— - Experts say the escalation is political, not military, aimed at a domestic audience and at exploiting political instability in Latvia.
— - The Kremlin's hybrid tactics include redirecting Ukrainian drones into Baltic airspace to pressure Kyiv and sow discord among NATO allies.
Source: FRANCE 24
