Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in Beijing on Monday for a two-day state visit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, as the war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz choke global energy supplies. The summit, Putin's 25th to China, comes less than a week after Xi hosted US President Donald Trump in the same capital, underscoring Beijing's balancing act between rival powers. "I sincerely appreciate President Xi Jinping's commitment to long-term cooperation with Russia," Putin said in a video address released ahead of his trip.
The May 19-20 visit coincides with the 25th anniversary of the Sino-Russian Treaty of Friendship, signed in 2001. Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said the two leaders plan to sign a declaration on building a "multipolar world" and discuss economic cooperation. Ushakov offered few details beyond "key international and regional issues." Those are expected to include the war in Iran, future energy deals, and Xi's recent summit with Trump.
The war in Ukraine, now in its fifth year, will also loom over the talks. Energy is the central thread. China has become Russia's top trading partner and the leading customer for Russian oil and gas.
The Strait of Hormuz closure has disrupted roughly one-fifth of global oil supplies, squeezing China's energy imports. Beijing has bought more than $367 billion worth of Russian fossil fuels since the start of the war in Iran, according to data from the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air. The crisis has renewed attention on the proposed Power of Siberia-2 gas pipeline.
That 2,600-kilometer project would bring gas from Russia's Yamal Peninsula to China via Mongolia. During Putin's last visit in September 2025, the two sides signed a memorandum to move forward. But pricing and other details remain unresolved.
Analysts caution negotiations could drag on for years. "In terms of immediate impact, there is not much upside to be expected in terms of pipeline gas to China," Anne-Sophie Corbeau, a researcher at Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy, told RFE/RL. "Power of Siberia-1 is pretty much full."
A smaller Far East pipeline will start in 2027 and ramp up gradually. Russia also agreed in 2025 to supply an additional 2.5 million metric tons of oil annually to China via Kazakhstan. But Beijing has maintained a diversification strategy, holding supply talks with Turkmenistan as well. "In a way, Russia is the answer, but Russia is a very slow answer for China," said Michael Kimmage, director of the Kennan Institute. "Quite possibly too slow, especially if the war does get resolved in the next couple of months."
The diplomatic choreography is deliberate. Xi hosted Trump one week, Putin the next. "It's about imagery and optics," Kimmage told RFE/RL. "That's a gesture of politeness toward Putin, as if he's on par with the United States and with China." The Kremlin said Putin would be briefed on Xi's meeting with Trump. That briefing carries weight.
Any US-China thaw could unsettle Moscow. The war in Ukraine has made Russia deeply dependent on China. "I think Putin will be very eager that there's no warming in the US-China relationship to the detriment of Russia," said Timothy Ash, an associate fellow at Chatham House. China's role in sustaining Russia's war effort has drawn sharp Western criticism.
Beijing is a steady energy customer and a major source of dual-use goods for Russia's military. China denies supplying lethal weapons and says it strictly controls dual-use exports. Ukrainian strikes deep inside Russia have hit oil infrastructure and civilian centers like Moscow.
Trump's summit with Xi produced only a brief reference to "the Ukraine crisis" in China's readout. US summaries omitted Ukraine entirely. That silence speaks volumes.
China's balancing act grows more precarious as the wars in Ukraine and Iran grind on. Behind the diplomatic language lies a stark asymmetry. Russia needs China more than China needs Russia.
Moscow's isolation from Western markets has left it with few alternatives. Beijing can afford to wait. The math does not add up for a quick pipeline deal.
Power of Siberia-2 would take years to build and require billions in investment. China can buy discounted Russian crude now without committing to long-term infrastructure. The oil market reflects the strain.
Brent crude broke above $111 per barrel as markets braced for shortages. Physical crude premiums collapsed despite the Hormuz crisis, a paradox OilPrice.com attributed to refinery maintenance and shifting trade flows. The Trump administration has allowed some sanctions relief to keep oil moving, but the Strait of Hormuz remains a chokepoint.
Here is what they are not telling you. The summit's real measure is not the signed declarations but the unsigned contracts. Follow the leverage, not the rhetoric.
Russia wants a lifeline. China wants options. The Power of Siberia-2 pipeline is a geopolitical bet that may never pay off.
Why It Matters: The Putin-Xi summit tests whether the Sino-Russian partnership can deliver energy security when global supply chains break. If the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, China's energy diversification strategy faces its hardest test since the 1973 oil crisis. A failure to advance pipeline deals would signal that even wartime desperation cannot bridge the trust deficit between Moscow and Beijing.
Key Takeaways: - Putin's visit to Beijing comes one week after Xi hosted Trump, highlighting China's balancing act between rival powers. - The Strait of Hormuz closure has disrupted one-fifth of global oil, pushing China to buy more Russian crude but without a breakthrough on the Power of Siberia-2 pipeline. - Russia is deeply dependent on China for trade and investment, but Beijing maintains a diversification strategy, also courting Turkmenistan. - The war in Ukraine remains a shadow over talks, with China facing Western criticism for sustaining Russia's war effort through energy purchases and dual-use goods. What comes next is a waiting game. The two sides may announce a framework for continued pipeline negotiations, but pricing disputes will likely persist.
Watch for any mention of a timeline for Power of Siberia-2 in the joint declaration. If it stays closed, Russia's slow-motion energy pivot gains momentum. The next milestone is the Far East pipeline startup in 2027.
Until then, oil markets will swing on every headline from Beijing and Tehran.
Key Takeaways
— Putin's visit to Beijing comes one week after Xi hosted Trump, highlighting China's balancing act between rival powers.
— The Strait of Hormuz closure has disrupted one-fifth of global oil, pushing China to buy more Russian crude but without a breakthrough on the Power of Siberia-2 pipeline.
— Russia is deeply dependent on China for trade and investment, but Beijing maintains a diversification strategy, also courting Turkmenistan.
— The war in Ukraine remains a shadow over talks, with China facing Western criticism for sustaining Russia's war effort through energy purchases and dual-use goods.
Source: RFE/RL
