U.S. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth demanded nations spend at least 3.5% of GDP on defense during the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore on Saturday. The call marked a sharp increase from NATO's 2% benchmark and drew public support from allies including the Netherlands. "No one country can do it all alone," said Canada's chief of defense staff, General Jennie Carignan, as the three-day summit laid bare a rapidly shifting global security calculus.
The Dutch deputy prime minister did not mince words. Dilan Yesilgoz-Zegerius told the forum that the United States is "right" to push allies to spend more, CNBC reported. Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine rewired public opinion in the Netherlands, she explained, making defense budgets politically viable in ways they had not been for decades.
Japan, the Philippines, and even New Zealand—a country that falls well below the 3.5% threshold—are now boosting allocations. The policy says one thing. The reality says another.
Japan's defense minister Shinjiro Koizumi announced his country's spending hikes and expansion of weapon sales at the same summit where a Chinese general questioned whether Asian nations could trust a remilitarizing Tokyo. Major General Meng Xiangqing from the People's Liberation Army National Defence University pointed directly at Japan's actions during World War II. The exchange captured the forum's central tension: a region arming itself while arguing over who poses the real threat.
Beijing's decision to skip sending Defense Minister Dong Jun for a second straight year shaped the entire gathering. Hegseth said he wished his counterpart had attended. Koizumi told delegates he was "feeling sad" about the absence.
German chief of defense General Carsten Breuer warned China was losing a chance at dialogue. The Philippines took the hardest line. National defense minister Gilberto Teodoro told CNBC that China's presence was "reduced to a minimum" and that Beijing's delegation was there "to promote the party line rather than to engage constructively." No major loss, he said.
But a lower-level delegation did not mean a quiet one. Meng defended China's positions with vigor during his session. Former vice minister of foreign affairs Cui Tiankai reinforced Beijing's stance on Taiwan. "No one cares more about stability in Taiwan Strait than we in China," Cui said, "because on both sides of the Taiwan Strait it's Chinese territory." The statement drew no visible pushback in the room, but the American and Japanese responses outside the session were immediate.
Koizumi accused China of a "lack of transparency" in its military buildup. Hegseth warned of "rightful alarm" across the Asia-Pacific. Manila's Teodoro struck the most combative tone of the summit. "They're unrepentant with their expansionism and unrelenting," he said. "To deny that would be to be absolutely dishonest." The language was sharper than anything heard at the previous year's dialogue.
What this actually means for your family. Higher defense spending reshapes national budgets. Japan's increases will compete with social welfare programs.
The Philippines is eyeing asymmetric warfare tactics drawn directly from Ukraine's playbook. Dutch chief of defense General Onno Eichelsheim revealed that Ukrainian advisers are now working with the Netherlands to assess what capabilities matter most—and what does not merit funding. The war in Europe is not just a European story anymore.
Pavlo Klimkin, a former Ukrainian foreign minister, told CNBC that countries are studying Ukraine's methods closely. "There's a very keen interest in lessons from Ukraine," he said. "Asymmetric deterrence and asymmetric fighting is something which matters." Klimkin framed the stakes bluntly: the war determines whether any security architecture exists in Europe at all. So is Japan. The summit ran from May 29 to 31 and drew top world leaders, defense officials, and key executives.
The International Institute for Strategic Studies hosts the event annually. This year's dialogue unfolded against a backdrop of North Korean missile tests, Chinese coast guard maneuvers in the South China Sea, and the grinding artillery war in eastern Ukraine. Each crisis fed the others.
Delegates moved between sessions carrying the weight of multiple conflicts at once. Canada's Carignan emphasized that collective security requires individual capability first. "Having the ability to get together to complement each other's capabilities is incredibly important," she said, "but in order to do that, you have to have your own defense." The statement reflected a broader shift. For years, smaller nations treated defense spending as a favor to Washington.
Now they treat it as survival. Both sides claim victory. Here are the numbers.
The 3.5% target Hegseth floated would require Japan to nearly double its current spending as a share of GDP. The Netherlands would need a similar leap. Even the United States, which spent roughly 3.4% of GDP on defense in 2024, would have to stretch further.
The political feasibility varies wildly by country. Germany's coalition government is already straining under budget disputes. The Philippines faces domestic pressure to fund education and infrastructure.
Yet the momentum is real. The Dutch deputy prime minister's endorsement of the American position would have been unthinkable five years ago. New Zealand's defense increases mark a historic pivot for a country that long defined itself by nuclear-free pacifism.
The Ukraine war made abstract threats concrete. A missile hitting a Kyiv apartment building looks the same as one hitting Manila or Taipei. China's absence from the top table carried consequences beyond bruised feelings.
No ministerial-level meeting between the Chinese and American defense chiefs occurred. No direct channel opened on crisis communication. The military-to-military hotline that both sides have discussed for years remained undiscussed in person.
General Breuer's warning about lost dialogue opportunities was not diplomatic fluff. It was a structural observation. The Taiwanese question hovered over every session.
Cui's statement that both sides of the strait are Chinese territory restated Beijing's longstanding position. No Taiwanese official attended the dialogue. The island's defense planning proceeds without the kind of multilateral forum access that Singapore provides.
The asymmetry is stark: China gets a platform; Taiwan does not. Japan's position is particularly delicate. Koizumi's push for higher spending and expanded weapon sales breaks with decades of post-war restraint.
Meng's invocation of World War II was not incidental. It was a deliberate reminder that Japan's neighbors remember history. South Korea, a fellow U.S. ally, has its own painful memories of Japanese occupation.
The regional alliance structure is not seamless. It is stitched together with tension. Teodoro's combativeness reflected the Philippines' unique position.
Manila faces Chinese vessels in disputed waters regularly. The confrontations are not theoretical. Filipino sailors and coast guard personnel see Chinese ships on the horizon.
The defense minister's language—"unrepentant," "unrelenting"—came from a place of direct experience, not abstract strategy. The Ukrainian advisers working with the Dutch military represent a new kind of knowledge transfer. A country fighting an industrial-scale war against a larger power is teaching a NATO member what works.
Drones, electronic warfare, decentralized command structures—these are not PowerPoint concepts. They are battlefield-tested. The Philippines' interest in asymmetric warfare follows the same logic.
A smaller navy cannot match China ship-for-ship. It can invest in systems that make approaching its waters costly. Hegseth's 3.5% demand will face resistance.
Congress has not settled on a long-term U.S. defense budget. European allies are already arguing over burden-sharing within NATO. The Shangri-La Dialogue does not produce binding commitments.
It produces signals. The signal from Singapore this year was unambiguous: the era of low defense spending is over. Why It Matters: The 3.5% GDP target, if adopted broadly, would redirect hundreds of billions of dollars from domestic programs to militaries across Asia and Europe.
For working families, that means potential trade-offs in healthcare, education, and infrastructure spending. The Philippines' pivot toward asymmetric warfare directly affects how Manila confronts Chinese vessels in disputed waters—raising the stakes of every maritime encounter. Japan's remilitarization debate touches the deepest historical wounds in East Asia, with China explicitly invoking World War II to question Tokyo's intentions.
Key takeaways: - The U.S. demanded allies spend 3.5% of GDP on defense, up from NATO's 2% benchmark, and the Netherlands publicly endorsed the call. - China skipped sending its defense minister for a second straight year, drawing criticism from the U.S., Japan, Germany, and the Philippines. - Ukraine's asymmetric warfare tactics are being studied and adopted by countries from the Philippines to the Netherlands, with Ukrainian advisers now embedded with NATO militaries. - Japan's defense buildup prompted a Chinese general to invoke World War II, showing the depth of regional mistrust. What comes next. Defense budgets for fiscal year 2027 will be the first real test of the 3.5% pledge.
Japan's Diet debates spending increases this autumn. The Netherlands faces coalition negotiations where defense allocations will be a flashpoint. The Philippines' procurement decisions will signal whether asymmetric warfare theory translates into actual hardware purchases.
And China's decision on whether to send Dong Jun to next year's Shangri-La Dialogue will indicate whether Beijing sees value in ministerial-level military communication—or whether the silence becomes permanent.
Key Takeaways
— The U.S. demanded allies spend 3.5% of GDP on defense, up from NATO's 2% benchmark, and the Netherlands publicly endorsed the call.
— China skipped sending its defense minister for a second straight year, drawing criticism from the U.S., Japan, Germany, and the Philippines.
— Ukraine's asymmetric warfare tactics are being studied and adopted by countries from the Philippines to the Netherlands, with Ukrainian advisers now embedded with NATO militaries.
— Japan's defense buildup prompted a Chinese general to invoke World War II, underscoring the depth of regional mistrust.
Source: CNBC
