A Ukrainian strike killed at least three people in Simferopol, Crimea, on Thursday, Moscow-installed officials said, a day after Kyiv targeted energy and military sites in Saint Petersburg during Russia's flagship economic forum. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned the risk of the war escalating is "real, more real than it was two years ago," as Ukraine demonstrated its ability to strike deep inside Russian territory.
Sergey Aksyonov, the Moscow-installed head of Crimea, announced the casualties on Telegram early Thursday. "Emergency services are currently at the scene," he wrote. Preliminary reports indicated the strike hit non-residential buildings, wounding seven others in addition to the three dead. The attack landed as 20,000 people from 130 countries gathered for the three-day Saint Petersburg International Economic Forum, an event once dubbed "Russia's Davos." President Vladimir Putin is scheduled to deliver a keynote address on Friday.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov vowed a "systemic" response to the Ukrainian strikes on Saint Petersburg. Black smoke from the strikes was visible from the conference venue as the first sessions started on Wednesday, Agence France-Presse reported. Valeria, a 32-year-old businesswoman from Moscow attending the forum, told AFP she was accustomed to the threat. "We have been living under such attacks for many years now," she said.
Ukrainian officials framed the Saint Petersburg attack on an oil terminal and the Kronstadt military base as a deliberate disruption. "The Petersburg forum is opening with a nice plume of black smoke in the background after Ukrainian strikes," said Sergiy Sternenko, an adviser to the Ukrainian defence minister. President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine was responding "accordingly" to Russian bombardment. "It's just a matter of time before we can scale up the intensity of our responses," Zelensky said during a press conference in Kyiv with NATO chief Mark Rutte. The strikes were not confined to Crimea and Saint Petersburg.
On Wednesday, a drone strike on a bus in Russian-occupied east Ukraine killed at least seven people, Moscow-installed officials said. Two others were killed, one in the Bryansk region near the Ukraine border and another in the Russian-occupied Kharkiv region. Russian attacks left at least 10 dead across Ukraine, local officials said.
Rubio's warning came during testimony before a US Senate appropriations panel. Ukraine has "become increasingly effective at conducting long-range strikes deep into Russia," he said. The capability, he argued, is "one of the things that reminds us of why it's important to try to bring this war to an end, if we can, because the risk of escalation is real, more real than it was two years ago."
Speaking earlier to the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Rubio lamented the lack of progress on ending the war, which began with Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022. "To this point, neither side has been willing to make concessions, particularly on the Russian side, necessary in order to bring peace about," he said. "But we stand ready, and we've engaged and invested a tremendous amount of high-level time on that conflict over the last year."
The math does not add up. Russia continues to press its ground offensive while absorbing strikes on its symbolic and economic heartland. Neither side is bending.
EU foreign affairs chief Kaja Kallas told AFP that Ukraine's attacks had spooked the Kremlin. "It clearly shows also panic on the Russian side -- why they are increasing the terrorist attacks that they're doing in Ukraine is because they don't know what to do with these things," Kallas said in an interview. "Putin is losing money, men, and momentum, and that's why he's increasing attacks on civilians."
Kallas's assessment points to a strategic dilemma for Moscow. The Kremlin wants to project normalcy at an international business forum. Ukraine is making that impossible.
The strikes force Russia to defend territory far from the front lines, stretching air defense systems and exposing vulnerabilities. Here is what they are not telling you. The Saint Petersburg forum is not just a conference.
It is a signal to investors and non-Western allies that Russia remains a functional, stable economic partner despite Western sanctions. A plume of black smoke on the horizon undermines that message more than any sanctions announcement. Follow the leverage, not the rhetoric.
Ukraine's deep-strike capability is its most potent bargaining chip. It shifts the domestic calculus inside Russia. It proves to Western backers that military aid translates into battlefield effects.
It creates costs for the Kremlin that no diplomatic démarche can match. The strikes also carry risk. Rubio's escalation warning was not abstract.
The Biden administration long hesitated to provide long-range weapons precisely because of fears of crossing Russian red lines. Those lines have blurred. Each deep strike tests the boundaries of Moscow's tolerance.
The war's geography is expanding. Crimea, annexed by Russia in 2014, was long treated as a sanctuary. Saint Petersburg, Putin's hometown, is a psychological center of gravity.
Striking both in a single 24-hour window is a statement of capability and intent. Casualty figures remain difficult to verify independently. Both sides have incentives to inflate enemy losses and minimize their own.
The three deaths in Simferopol and seven wounded were reported by a Moscow-installed official. The seven killed in the bus strike came from Russian occupation authorities. Independent confirmation is not immediately available.
The broader pattern is clear. Ukraine is trading blows at longer range. Russia is hitting Ukrainian cities.
The civilian toll mounts on both sides. The diplomatic track is frozen. Why It Matters: Ukraine's ability to disrupt a high-profile international event on Russian soil changes the strategic conversation.
It demonstrates that no target is beyond reach, complicating Putin's domestic narrative of control and raising the political cost of the war for the Kremlin. For Western capitals weighing future aid packages, the strikes provide evidence that Ukrainian forces can use long-range weapons to strategic effect—a factor that will shape debates in Washington and Brussels over the coming months. Key Takeaways: - A Ukrainian strike on Simferopol killed three and wounded seven, according to the Moscow-installed head of Crimea, one day after Kyiv hit targets in Saint Petersburg during Russia's premier economic forum. - US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Congress the risk of escalation is "real, more real than it was two years ago," citing Ukraine's growing long-range strike capability.
What comes next. Putin's Friday keynote at the Saint Petersburg forum will be scrutinized for any shift in tone or threat of retaliation. The Kremlin's promised "systemic" response will test whether Russia escalates its air campaign against Ukrainian cities or targets Western supply lines.
NATO chief Mark Rutte's visit to Kyiv signals continued alliance support, but Rubio's frustration with the lack of concessions from Moscow suggests Washington's patience is finite. The next round of long-range strikes will reveal whether Ukraine can sustain this operational tempo—and whether Russia's red lines have any meaning left.
Key Takeaways
— - Ukraine struck Simferopol, Crimea, killing three, and hit Saint Petersburg during Russia's flagship economic forum in a coordinated demonstration of deep-strike capability.
— - US Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned Congress the risk of escalation is 'real, more real than it was two years ago,' citing Ukraine's increasingly effective long-range strikes.
— - EU foreign affairs chief Kaja Kallas said the attacks reveal 'panic on the Russian side' and that Putin is 'losing money, men, and momentum.'
— - Putin's Friday keynote address and the Kremlin's promised 'systemic' response will shape the next phase of the conflict.
Source: Agence France-Presse
