Yemen's Houthi rebels, allied with Iran, may move to disrupt shipping through the Bab al-Mandab Strait, a strategic chokepoint between Djibouti and Yemen, according to regional security analysts. This potential action follows the effective halt of Western commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, raising significant concerns for global energy supplies. Saudi Arabia, heavily reliant on Bab al-Mandab for its crude exports, faces considerable economic risk if the waterway is threatened, The Independent reported on April 14, 2026.
The entry of Houthi forces into the broader conflict with Iran at the end of March introduced a new dimension to regional maritime security challenges. This development has intensified scrutiny on the Bab al-Mandab Strait, known historically as the “Gate of Tears,” a narrow passage that connects the Red Sea to the Arabian Sea. It serves as a vital artery for vessels traveling between the Mediterranean Sea and the Indian Ocean, often via the Suez Canal.
Approximately 50 kilometers long and 16 kilometers wide at its narrowest point, the strait is geographically positioned between Djibouti on the African continent and Yemen on the Arabian Peninsula. Large volumes of petroleum and liquefied natural gas traverse this waterway, making it an indispensable component of the world's energy supply chain. Its importance has grown particularly since the Strait of Hormuz became largely inaccessible to Western commercial shipping following the outbreak of war, though Iran continues to move oil to allies using vessels with disabled transponders.
The Strait of Hormuz typically accounts for the transit of about 20 percent of the world’s oil and gas. Its constrained operations have led to a far larger disruption than the 1973 oil crisis, which impacted approximately 7 percent of global oil supplies. The current situation places immense pressure on alternative routes and chokepoints, amplifying the economic consequences of any further maritime interference.
Mona Yacoubian, an expert at the U.S. Center for Strategic and International Studies, described Iran’s potential escalation strategy. Speaking to Fox News, Yacoubian stated, “If the US proceeds with its plan to blockade the strait [of Hormuz], Iran’s escalation strategy could dictate that it ensures Gulf countries can’t export, either.” She added that this approach might involve further attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure or the deployment of Houthis to blockade the Bab al-Mandab.
Financial markets have already reacted to the instability. Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, rose by more than 7 percent on Monday, reaching $102 a barrel in morning trading. This price movement followed a brief period last week when oil fell below the $100 threshold after the United States and Iran had agreed to a two-week ceasefire, which included provisions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Before the conflict began, Brent crude traded at $78 per barrel. Bab al-Mandab historically saw significant traffic. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that between 2020 and 2023, the strait’s daily transit peaked at 9.3 million barrels.
However, this volume decreased substantially to 4.1 million barrels per day in 2024 after Houthi forces initiated systematic attacks on commercial vessels linked to Israel that were using the waterway. This disruption has broader trade implications. The International Monetary Fund reported that trade through the Suez Canal dropped by 50 percent in the first two months of 2024 when compared to the previous year.
Concurrently, trade through the Panama Canal experienced a 32 percent reduction. As traffic diminished, insurance costs for shipping companies surged, prompting many major firms to reroute their vessels around the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa, adding an estimated 10 to 14 days to journey times. Saudi Arabia has strategically utilized the Bab al-Mandab Strait to maintain a flow of crude oil exports through its vital Yanbu port on the kingdom’s west coast.
This port receives oil via the country's east-to-west pipeline, a crucial bypass given the challenges in Hormuz. Matthew Wright, a freight analyst for Kpler, told The Independent earlier this month that the pipeline was “being pushed to the maximum,” underscoring its current importance. Wright emphasized the port’s activity. “While all the attention is rightly on what’s happening in the strait, Yanbu is significant in that it’s the most active port out of the Middle East gulf at the moment,” he explained.
He warned that any incident affecting Yanbu would deliver a “massive blow to continued crude exports from the Middle East.” Analysts estimate that as of April 2026, Saudi Arabia was exporting approximately 4.6 to 5 million barrels per day of crude oil from Yanbu, with 80 percent of these exports directed towards Asian markets. Losing this capacity, in addition to the Hormuz closures, presents a considerable economic challenge. Why It Matters: The potential closure or sustained disruption of Bab al-Mandab, in conjunction with the ongoing issues in Hormuz, could severely restrict global energy supplies and freight movement.
This scenario would lead to increased shipping costs, extended delivery times, and higher prices for consumers worldwide, impacting economies reliant on Middle Eastern imports. The interconnectedness of these waterways means a threat to one quickly reverberates across the global trade network. Key Takeaways: - Houthi rebels, allied with Iran, could target the Bab al-Mandab Strait, a critical global shipping lane. - This potential action follows the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz to many Western commercial vessels. - Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu port and its east-to-west pipeline are currently vital for oil exports, handling nearly 5 million barrels daily. - Disruptions have already led to a 50 percent drop in Suez Canal trade and increased shipping costs, with vessels rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope.
Observers will monitor statements from Tehran and Washington regarding the Strait of Hormuz blockade and any subsequent Houthi movements near Bab al-Mandab. The actions of regional navies and the response of international shipping alliances to potential threats will also warrant close attention. Any shift in Saudi Arabia’s export volumes from Yanbu would signal a direct impact on global energy markets.
Key Takeaways
— - Houthi rebels, allied with Iran, could target the Bab al-Mandab Strait, a critical global shipping lane.
— - This potential action follows the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz to many Western commercial vessels.
— - Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu port and its east-to-west pipeline are currently vital for oil exports, handling nearly 5 million barrels daily.
— - Disruptions have already led to a 50 percent drop in Suez Canal trade and increased shipping costs, with vessels rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope.
Source: The Independent