The United States has drafted a 14-point memorandum aimed at ending its two-month war with Iran, Axios reported Wednesday. The proposal would pause military operations and mutual blockades for 30 days while negotiators meet in Islamabad or Geneva to tackle Iran's nuclear program. A US official told the outlet that if talks collapse, American forces could immediately restore their blockade or resume strikes.
The memo, still awaiting Tehran's formal response, arrives after weeks of punishing economic fallout. A barrel of crude oil that cost $72 on February 27 now trades at $99.33. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz—a waterway that normally carries 20 percent of global oil and gas—has driven inflation and pushed millions into poverty and hunger, according to The Independent.
Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are leading the American negotiating team. Their offer would see both the US and Iranian blockades gradually lifted over the 30-day negotiation window. The starting point for the nuclear talks remains unclear, but the contours of a compromise are emerging.
Iran's last public offer suggested a 15-year freeze on uranium enrichment, thereafter allowing enrichment up to 3.6 percent purity with zero stockpiles of enriched material, Al Jazeera reported. The US is pushing for a 20-year moratorium. Three sources told Axios that a compromise would likely land at "at least 12 years." After that period, Iran could resume limited enrichment for civilian use, capped at 3.67 percent.
That framework is tougher in some respects than the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which Trump abandoned in 2018. The JCPOA limited enrichment to 3.67 percent for 15 years and capped stockpiles at 300 kilograms. Trump has repeatedly called that deal a failure.
Critics said it traded temporary nuclear constraints for permanent sanctions relief. Iran is now in a different position. It holds an estimated 440 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent purity—a short technical step from the roughly 90 percent needed for a weapon.
Hours before the war erupted on February 28, Oman announced a breakthrough in mediated talks: Tehran had agreed to zero stockpiling and to convert existing enriched material into fuel. Those pre-war talks collapsed. The US had insisted on widening the agenda to address the IRGC's support for regional proxy groups and its ballistic missile program.
It is not clear from current reporting whether the new 14-point memo tackles either issue. The document is described as light on detail. What the memo does address is sanctions relief.
The US would commit to gradually lifting sanctions and releasing billions of dollars in frozen Iranian funds. The specific sanctions under consideration have not been disclosed. Washington has long used sanctions relief as a bargaining chip.
In March, the US elected to lift sanctions on some Iranian oil anyway, seeking to contain the energy price spike caused by the Strait's closure. The blockade has been the war's most economic weapon. Before February 28, the Strait of Hormuz was an international waterway with no Iranian interference.
International law prohibits any country from limiting traffic through it. Iran has been eyeing a post-war arrangement in which the US leaves it to enforce tolls on commercial ships. Washington has so far opposed that, threatening shipping firms with sanctions for paying Iran.
The new memo bears some resemblance to a 14-point offer floated by Iran last week. That proposal also called for a gradual end to both blockades and what was described as "a new mechanism for the Strait of Hormuz." The US version appears to have pared back demands made of the regime at the war's start. Thousands of people have died since February 28.
Violence has spread beyond the Strait, notably between Israel and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. Global trade has been decimated. The economic damage has been massive and indiscriminate.
Behind the diplomatic language lies a hard reality. Both sides are bleeding. Neither can sustain the current trajectory.
The memo offers an off-ramp. It does not offer a final settlement. Why It Matters: A 30-day ceasefire would immediately lower oil prices and ease inflation pressure on working families worldwide.
But the deal defers the hardest questions—Iran's stockpile of near-weapons-grade uranium, its ballistic missiles, and its regional proxy network—to negotiations that could collapse at any moment. If they do, the war resumes. The policy says one thing.
The reality says another. The historical context is instructive. In late 2013, the US offered limited sanctions relief and the repatriation of some frozen assets in return for Iran halting enrichment to 20 percent and opening up to regular inspections.
Encouraging reports from the UN's nuclear watchdog led to further sanctions waivers, ahead of the JCPOA's signing with the UK, France, Russia, China, and Germany in 2015. Trump withdrew from that deal in 2018. Sanctions were reimposed.
Iran abandoned the limits. The cycle is repeating. Key takeaways from the current proposal: - A one-page, 14-point memo would end active hostilities and begin a 30-day negotiation period on Iran's nuclear program. - The US seeks a uranium enrichment freeze of up to 20 years; Iran has offered 15 years; a compromise at 12 years is likely. - Sanctions relief and the release of frozen Iranian funds are on the table, but the scope remains undefined. - If talks fail, the US reserves the right to immediately restore its blockade or resume military action.
What comes next is a waiting game. Iran must formally respond to the memo. If it agrees, delegations will convene in Islamabad or Geneva within days.
The 30-day clock starts then. The world will watch whether negotiators can bridge the gap on enrichment timelines, stockpile limits, and the unresolved issues of ballistic missiles and proxy forces. A collapse would not just restart the war—it would do so with Iran holding more enriched uranium than ever before.
The stakes could not be higher.
Key Takeaways
— - A one-page US memo proposes ending the Iran war with a 30-day ceasefire to negotiate nuclear limits.
— - The US wants a 20-year enrichment freeze; Iran offered 15; a 12-year compromise is under discussion.
— - Sanctions relief and frozen funds are on the table, but the scope of sanctions to be lifted is undefined.
— - If talks fail, the US can immediately restore its blockade or resume military strikes.
Source: The Independent
