Congressman Eric Swalwell abruptly ended his California gubernatorial campaign last week, fundamentally reshaping a congested Democratic primary field. His sudden exit leaves no single Democratic candidate clearly ahead. Mail-in voting begins in less than a month. Democrats publicly voice apprehension that the state’s top-two primary system could allow two Republicans to advance to the November general election, effectively excluding their party from the final contest for governor.
Swalwell, a former prosecutor known for his media appearances, cited fundraising challenges and a lack of clear path to victory as primary reasons for his withdrawal. His campaign struggled to gain traction against established statewide figures and well-funded newcomers. The departure shifts approximately 8% of the projected Democratic vote share back into play.
This represents a significant pool of uncommitted voters. Political analysts at the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) quickly revised their projections, indicating heightened volatility in the race's final weeks. "Swalwell's exit scrambles everything," said Mark Baldassare, president and CEO of PPIC, on Tuesday morning. "Every remaining candidate now sees a new opening."
The top-two primary system, established by Proposition 14 in 2010, allows all candidates regardless of party affiliation to appear on a single ballot. Only the two candidates receiving the most votes advance to the general election. This system was designed to promote moderation.
However, in practice, it frequently produces unpredictable outcomes. Democrats hold a supermajority in both houses of the California Legislature. They also control every statewide office.
The prospect of being locked out of the governor's race is a genuine concern. "It's a nightmare scenario for the party," stated Jessica Levinson, a professor of law at Loyola Marymount University, last Wednesday. "Voter enthusiasm might drop substantially if our voters feel they have no viable choice in November."
Here is what they are not telling you: the sheer number of Democratic contenders dilutes the vote. This disproportionately benefits unified Republican support. While Democrats outnumber registered Republicans by nearly two-to-one in California, that advantage becomes a liability when divided among eight or nine serious candidates.
Each pulls from a similar progressive or moderate Democratic base. This fragmentation ensures no single Democrat can consolidate enough support to guarantee a top-two finish. Meanwhile, the two leading Republicans, Chad Bianco and Steve Hilton, largely appeal to distinct segments of the conservative electorate.
Their paths to the general election appear more direct. Chad Bianco, the Riverside County Sheriff, operates with the directness of a career law enforcement officer. Elected in 2018, Bianco is an outspoken proponent of former President Donald Trump's policies.
His three decades in law enforcement provide him a strong base among voters prioritizing public safety. Bianco recently seized over 500,000 ballots from a November special election in Riverside County. He claimed an investigation into a ballot count discrepancy.
The California Supreme Court intervened, ordering Bianco to halt his efforts. This action solidified his image among some conservative voters as a fighter against perceived electoral irregularities. State election officials sharply condemned it.
Steve Hilton, the other prominent Republican, presents a different profile. A conservative commentator who hosted a Fox News show for six years, Hilton also advised former British Prime Minister David Cameron. His media background gives him a platform.
Former President Trump endorsed Hilton last week, calling him "a truly fine man." This endorsement provides a significant boost. The state Republican Party, however, chose not to endorse any candidate at its convention. This reflects a cautious approach, avoiding internal divisions while allowing both Hilton and Bianco to consolidate their distinct bases.
On the Democratic side, Congresswoman Katie Porter, known for her whiteboard interrogations of corporate executives, commands significant attention. First elected to Congress in 2018, she flipped a Republican-held seat in Orange County. Porter is one of only two prominent women in the race.
California has never elected a woman as governor. Her previous U.S. Senate bid in 2024, though well-funded, concluded without success.
Last year, Porter faced scrutiny after threatening to exit a television interview following a contentious exchange. Allegations of harsh staff treatment have also surfaced. This dynamic complicates her appeal to some voters.
Tom Steyer, the billionaire hedge-fund manager, largely finances his own gubernatorial campaign. A liberal activist, Steyer ran an unsuccessful presidential campaign in 2020. He positions himself as a progressive voice.
Recently, questions have intensified regarding his past investments in coal mining and private prisons, facilities now used for U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement detention. These past ventures present a significant challenge to his progressive branding and progressive voter appeal.
Steyer's personal wealth enables substantial media buys, yet it also opens him to criticism about elite influence in politics. San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan presents himself as a moderate Democrat, entering the race in January after becoming a frequent critic of outgoing Governor Gavin Newsom. He quickly amassed millions in funding, drawing heavily from Silicon Valley and other prominent business leaders.
Mahan's political career began as a city councilmember in 2020. He then secured the mayoral election in 2022. This marks his first time seeking statewide elected office, a leap from municipal governance.
His appeal to the business community offers a distinct fundraising advantage in a crowded primary. The math does not add up for a candidate with such limited prior experience to bypass established figures without significant financial backing. Betty Yee, former state controller, brings extensive experience in California's financial administration.
She previously served as the vice chair of the state Democratic party. As California's top financial officer, Yee managed state funds, audited government agencies, and participated on over 70 boards and commissions. She has attempted to position herself as a leading progressive voice, but her campaign has struggled to gain significant momentum since her announcement more than two years ago.
Her deep institutional knowledge is undeniable. Voter recognition remains a challenge. Xavier Becerra, former President Joe Biden's top health official, oversaw the coronavirus pandemic response.
He previously served as California's attorney general during former President Trump's first term. Becerra also holds more than two decades of experience as a congressmember. His current campaign has gained little traction.
This is despite winning statewide office before. Last year, his former chief of staff was indicted on federal corruption charges, involving a scheme to steal campaign money. Becerra himself was not accused of any wrongdoing.
Antonio Villaraigosa, the former Los Angeles mayor, made history in 2014 as the first Latino politician to hold that office in over a century. He also served in the state Legislature, including a term as Assembly speaker. Villaraigosa previously ran for governor in 2018 against Gavin Newsom.
His name recognition is high, but past attempts at statewide office suggest a ceiling to his appeal. Tony Thurmond has served as California's top education official since 2019. He championed efforts to oppose a policy requiring school staff to notify parents if their child changes pronouns or gender identity.
His focus on education issues and progressive social policies distinguishes him. He has a dedicated base of support. However, his broader appeal beyond education circles remains untested in a statewide gubernatorial contest.
The current political situation in California carries echoes of past races where a split vote allowed unexpected outcomes. In 2012, for example, the top-two primary for U.S. Senate saw two Democrats advance, locking out any Republican.
Conversely, a crowded field in a less prominent statewide race could easily lead to a Republican lockout if Democratic votes splinter too finely. This phenomenon is not unique to California. It reflects a broader trend of primary systems struggling to adapt to increasingly polarized electorates within a multi-party candidate landscape.
Follow the leverage, not the rhetoric: the leverage here lies with the consolidated Republican vote, not the fragmented Democratic majority. "We are effectively handing the Republicans a gift," stated Elena Rodriguez, political director for the California Democratic Party, during a strategy call on Thursday. Her hand chopped the air with each word. "It's a self-inflicted wound."
Why does this matter? A Republican governor in California could significantly alter the state's trajectory. Even with a Democratic supermajority, executive power holds considerable sway.
Executive orders, appointments to key state agencies, and the governor's veto represent powerful tools for shaping policy. These mechanisms allow a governor to steer the state, even against legislative opposition. Issues like environmental regulations, immigration, and criminal justice reform could face substantial challenges.
Current initiatives might halt. A shift in the governor's mansion would also reverberate nationally, diminishing Democratic influence in Washington. California typically serves as a progressive policy incubator.
Its leadership on climate change often sets national and international standards. A change in its executive leadership could slow or even reverse some of these initiatives. This would affect millions of residents directly.
It would also weaken the national progressive movement. - The unexpected withdrawal of Rep. Eric Swalwell has created significant uncertainty in California's gubernatorial primary. No clear Democratic frontrunner exists. - California's top-two primary system risks allowing two Republican candidates to advance to the November general election.
This is due to a fragmented Democratic vote. - Leading Republican contenders Chad Bianco and Steve Hilton benefit from a more consolidated conservative base, despite Democrats outnumbering Republicans statewide. - A Republican victory could drastically alter California's policy direction on environmental, immigration, and social issues, with national implications. Mail-in ballots are scheduled for distribution beginning in under a month. The remaining candidates face a compressed timeline to consolidate support and distinguish themselves.
Debates will become increasingly critical platforms for candidates to break through the crowded field and articulate clear policy differences. Expect intensified fundraising efforts and targeted advertising campaigns. The California Democratic Party will likely increase internal pressure on some candidates to consider withdrawing or endorsing others.
Such moves often meet resistance. Observers will watch closely for shifts in polling data and endorsements from influential figures, as the state moves toward a primary election that could redefine its political future.
Key Takeaways
— - The unexpected withdrawal of Rep. Eric Swalwell has created significant uncertainty in California's gubernatorial primary. No clear Democratic frontrunner exists.
— - California's top-two primary system risks allowing two Republican candidates to advance to the November general election. This is due to a fragmented Democratic vote.
— - Leading Republican contenders Chad Bianco and Steve Hilton benefit from a more consolidated conservative base, despite Democrats outnumbering Republicans statewide.
— - A Republican victory could drastically alter California's policy direction on environmental, immigration, and social issues, with national implications.
Source: AP News