Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni publicly condemned Donald Trump's criticism of Pope Leo XIV this week, signaling a significant shift in her political alliances within Europe. This realignment follows growing public discontent in Italy over energy prices and a recent domestic referendum defeat, according to analysts. Meloni called Trump's remarks about the pontiff "unacceptable" on Monday, a stark departure from their previously cordial relationship.
The immediate catalyst for Meloni's public rebuke stemmed from Trump's social media tirade against Pope Leo XIV. The pontiff had criticized the US-Israeli war in Iran, stating the world was "being ravaged by a handful of tyrants." Trump responded by calling Leo "weak," prompting Meloni to defend the head of the Catholic Church. This direct confrontation forced a choice for the Italian leader, whose nation holds a deep Catholic identity.
More than half of Italians identify as Catholic, making the Pope's standing a sensitive issue. Meloni stated it was "right and normal for [the pope] to call for peace and to condemn every form of war." Her words marked a clear break from an ally she once courted. Trump, who had previously praised Meloni as "one of the real leaders of the world," quickly retaliated, telling an Italian newspaper that "she's the one who's unacceptable" and "no longer the same person." This exchange closed the door on their alliance.
Behind the diplomatic language lies a more fundamental economic reality that has reshaped Italian public opinion. The ongoing war in Iran has directly impacted energy markets, driving up prices for Italian consumers. Italy relies heavily on natural gas, importing around 10% of its supply from Qatar before the conflict.
The Strait of Hormuz, a critical global shipping route, has seen blockades, and Iran's counterattacks on Qatar's largest gas refinery have disrupted supplies. This chain of events forced Italy to seek alternative energy sources. Prices climbed rapidly.
These disruptions have tangible consequences for everyday Italians. Diesel price in Italy is more than €2 [$2.30] per liter. Such figures impact household budgets directly.
Leo Goretti, head of the Italian foreign policy program at the Istituto Affari Internazionali think tank in Rome, observed a growing discontent among Meloni's political base. "That has a massive impact on a number of social groups which are likely conservative and pro-Meloni," Goretti explained. Roberto D'Alimonte, an emeritus professor of political science at the University of Florence, agreed, noting that "people associate the higher bills and gasoline prices to Trump." This popular sentiment creates political pressure. Public polls reflect this economic strain and its political fallout.
A March YouGov poll indicated that 80% of Italians held an unfavorable opinion of Trump. This negative view intensified as the Iran war pushed energy prices higher. Furthermore, a recent poll by Italian research institute SWG found that nine in 10 Italians expressed concern about the war's effect on energy costs.
Six in 10 opposed the war itself. These numbers on the shipping manifest tell the real story of public frustration. Meloni's relationship with Trump had already cooled in recent months.
She spoke out against his threats to annex Greenland in January. Goretti pointed to Trump's continued backing for Israel in the Gaza conflict, which has resulted in tens of thousands of Palestinian deaths, as another factor. Meloni's past support for both Trump and Israel may have cost her politically.
The Italian public showed anger about humanitarian violations in the Gaza war, Goretti stated. "They are not happy about the instability that Israel is unleashing in the Middle East."
This sentiment likely contributed to Meloni's defeat in an unrelated judicial reform referendum in March. The vote, widely considered a measure of her government's domestic popularity, saw 54% of Italians vote against the reforms. This outcome reportedly compelled Meloni to view Trump as a political liability.
The referendum result was a clear signal. Meloni, described as a pragmatist by Julien Hoez, editor of the French Dispatch and a political analyst, is now actively working to mend fences. She has suspended a defense agreement with Israel.
This step signals a distancing from previous positions. "There are various reasons she has decided to take on Trump," Hoez noted. He cited Trump's unpopularity in Italy, the high energy prices, Meloni's need to recover from the referendum loss, and stagnating GDP growth. The controversy between Trump and the Pope, Hoez added, offered Meloni an opportunity for a political victory by defending the Catholic leader who resides within Italy.
For years, Meloni had cultivated a relationship with Trump, hoping to secure Italy a mediating role between the European Union and the United States. Goretti believes this was "wishful thinking." That strategy yielded few tangible gains for Italy. Now, Goretti suggests, Meloni may lean more toward aligning with center-right conservative governments within Europe, rather than the far-right.
This reorientation could reshape continental alliances. Viktor Orban's defeat in the Hungarian election on April 12, despite Trump's endorsement, further isolated Meloni within the European Union, D'Alimonte observed. "She lost a like-minded politician in Europe, a sovereigntist, an anti-immigration leader," D'Alimonte said. "Gradually I think she has to get closer to Merz, Macron and others." For the EU, this means Trump has fewer options to undermine unity at the EU level, Hoez explained. Trade policy is foreign policy by other means, and Meloni's calculations have shifted.
Meloni's actions indicate a strategic recalibration. Her government faces an election next year. The price at the pump will decide many votes.
Her defense of the Pope was a smart move, D'Alimonte concluded, because the Pope is a popular figure among her voters. This shift could see Italy's foreign policy priorities adapt to domestic economic realities and public sentiment. It is a clear example of how global supply chains and energy costs can directly influence national political alignments.
Key Takeaways: - Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni publicly distanced herself from Donald Trump after his criticism of Pope Leo XIV, calling his remarks "unacceptable." - This split follows widespread Italian public discontent over rising energy prices, directly linked to the Iran war and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. - Analysts suggest Meloni's move is a pragmatic attempt to align with Italian voter sentiment and recover from a recent domestic referendum defeat. - The shift could see Meloni seeking closer ties with mainstream European center-right leaders, rather than maintaining a far-right alliance. What comes next for Meloni involves a careful navigation of both domestic and European politics. Italian elections are scheduled for next year, and her ability to address consumer concerns about energy prices will be crucial.
Observers will watch closely for any further adjustments in Italy's defense agreements or diplomatic postures toward Israel. Her future interactions with figures like German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron will indicate the extent of her European re-alignment. The impact of the Iran war on global energy markets, particularly gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz, will continue to influence Italy's economic stability and, by extension, Meloni's political standing.
Key Takeaways
— - Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni publicly distanced herself from Donald Trump after his criticism of Pope Leo XIV, calling his remarks "unacceptable."
— - This split follows widespread Italian public discontent over rising energy prices, directly linked to the Iran war and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
— - Analysts suggest Meloni's move is a pragmatic attempt to align with Italian voter sentiment and recover from a recent domestic referendum defeat.
— - The shift could see Meloni seeking closer ties with mainstream European center-right leaders, rather than maintaining a far-right alliance.
Source: DW