India's ambitious metro expansion, backed by over $26 billion in government spending since 2014, faces significant challenges as many lines struggle to attract projected ridership. The Aqua Line in Mumbai, for instance, carries only about a tenth of its anticipated 1.5 million daily passengers, according to various estimates reported by the BBC. This trend reveals a gap between infrastructure aspirations and on-the-ground realities in India's rapidly urbanizing landscape.
On a recent weekday evening, the southbound Aqua Line metro train in Mumbai largely emptied several stops before its final destination. The last station, Cuffe Parade, projected to be a bustling hub, instead presented the appearance of a desolate Soviet-era structure, a stark contrast to the usual throngs in India's financial capital. This 33.5-kilometer underground corridor, opened last year, was built to connect the old business district with newer commercial centers like Bandra Kurla Complex (BKC) and the city's airport terminals in the northern suburbs.
It was designed to alleviate some of the city's notorious traffic congestion. That goal remains distant. “Not a lot of people are using the line. It's too expensive,” a ticketing executive told the BBC at Cuffe Parade station, underscoring a critical barrier to adoption.
This low usage on a flagship line reflects a broader pattern challenging India's rapid metro network expansion. The numbers on the ridership manifests tell a more complex story than the aggregate figures suggest. Since 2014, the government under Prime Minister Narendra Modi has funneled more than $26 billion into developing metro connectivity across nearly two dozen Indian cities.
This investment has dramatically expanded the network, which grew fourfold from under 300 kilometers to more than 1,000 kilometers by 2025. Average daily ridership has also nearly quadrupled, increasing from three million to over 11 million people in the last decade. These are impressive figures on paper.
However, these grand totals often obscure worrying underlying data when examined at the project level. Most metro systems in India have failed to achieve even a fraction of the ridership projected during their initial planning stages, according to transport experts. A 2023 report from the Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, for example, indicated that ridership stood at merely 25-35% of projected figures across various corridors.
One of the study’s authors informed the BBC that these numbers are unlikely to have changed significantly over 2024 and 2025. Other independent studies corroborate these findings, painting a consistent picture of underperformance across the network. According to the Observer Research Foundation (ORF) think tank, ridership in some Tier-3 cities, such as Kanpur, registered as low as 2% of the projected estimate.
In Chennai, a major southern Indian city, the first phase of its metro system achieved 37% of its forecast ridership. Data shared with the BBC by the Institute for Transportation and Development Policy (ITDP) also revealed actual ridership ranging between 20-50% in western Indian cities like Pune and Nagpur. Delhi, which boasts India's most extensive metro network, stands as a notable exception, where usage has slightly surpassed its projections.
However, this apparent success is nuanced. Two transport experts, Aditya Rane of ITDP and Ashish Verma of the Sustainable Transportation Lab at the Indian Institute of Science in Bengaluru, explained to the BBC that Delhi has begun counting interchanges as separate trips, inflating its overall ridership statistics. The struggle of metro travel in a country where car ownership remains relatively low and other public transport systems are frequently overcrowded prompts a closer examination.
It points to a confluence of factors, beginning with often inaccurate projections of potential demand by consultants, according to Verma. “It is a complex task [to project demand], and figures are sometimes exaggerated to show the project is economically viable,” he stated. Forecasts often rely on “offered capacity” — such as a specific number of coaches or train frequencies — which are frequently not realized in practice. For example, in Bengaluru, peak-hour train frequency on the busiest line is five minutes or more, while on a newer line, it can extend to 25 minutes.
This impacts reliability. Similarly, many trains operate with only three to six coaches, whereas the world's busiest metro systems typically use nine coaches with a frequency of a train every minute-and-a-half, according to the Sustainable Transportation Lab. Affordability, or the lack thereof, presents another significant hurdle.
A single journey on Mumbai's Aqua Line costs between 10 and 70 rupees (£0.08-£0.56). In contrast, a three-month unlimited travel pass on the local Mumbai suburban railway is considerably cheaper at 590 rupees. This price disparity is critical for daily commuters. “In Indian metro systems, the integrated journey cost can consume 20% of income for lower-income workers, above the global benchmark of 10-15%,” Rane explained.
Verma notes a growing tendency to reduce subsidies, which may not be advisable in a price-sensitive country like India. This issue gained public attention when Bengaluru's metro hiked fares last year, leading to citizen demonstrations and a subsequent 13% drop in ridership, according to data collated by Greenpeace. “Even the London Tube till today is heavily subsidised. Because there is a purpose.
You are trying to provide sustainable mobility and decongest the city,” Verma argued. Infrastructure policy, in this context, functions as urban development by other means. Other issues contributing to suppressed demand include poor network planning and insufficient last-mile connectivity. “People will switch to public transport only when waiting times are as low as possible,” Nandan Dawda, a Fellow at ORF’s Urban Studies program, told the BBC.
A major problem in India is the scarcity of adequate feeder buses to handle the final stretch of a commuter’s journey. Transit times between different lines are also often high and cumbersome. At Hauz Khas station in Delhi, for instance, transferring from one line to another can take almost 15 to 20 minutes.
This institutional disaggregation impedes solutions, Dawda noted. Various metro lines and bus networks, even within a single city, are managed by different operators who frequently work in silos. “There needs to be better operational integration between them,” he added. Poor walkways and concerns about women's safety further deter potential riders. “Access and approach to and from metro stations to other destinations has to be convenient to support the use of public transport,” Verma stated. “If I am a tourist even in a city like Delhi, I can’t drag my bag to the metro easily and walk to my hotel 500 meters away.” For residents like Chetna Yadav, a 40-year-old living in north Delhi, safety is a primary concern. “If I am coming home after sunset, I cannot rely on the metro.
The station is about 15 kilometers from where I live and when I reach the final stop at night, it is next to impossible to get a cab home. I have been stuck in that situation a few times.” This personal account reveals a significant barrier for many. Why It Matters: India's urban centers are experiencing rapid growth, and efficient public transport is crucial for economic productivity, environmental sustainability, and quality of life.
The underperformance of metro systems, despite substantial investment, suggests that current approaches may not be delivering the expected dividends. The disconnect between ambitious infrastructure projects and their practical utilization highlights a need for more integrated urban planning and a deeper understanding of commuter behavior. It is not enough to simply build; the systems must be genuinely usable and affordable.
The economic toll extends beyond the construction costs, affecting potential gains in productivity and the broader societal benefits of reduced traffic and pollution. Key Takeaways: - India's metro network has expanded significantly, with over $26 billion invested since 2014, yet ridership often falls far short of projections. - Factors like high fares, infrequent trains, poor last-mile connectivity, and safety concerns deter potential passengers. - Demand projections are frequently inflated to justify project viability, leading to operational underperformance. - Delhi's metro, while appearing successful, achieves higher ridership figures partly by counting interchanges as separate trips. Despite these persistent problems, experts anticipate metro use will continue to inch up incrementally.
Traffic congestion, pollution, parking difficulties, and road safety issues have reached critical levels in many Indian cities. Calls to introduce congestion pricing for private vehicles are growing louder. Without the promise of a cheaper, more seamless metro ride, however, a swift and dramatic rise in adoption appears unlikely.
The systems most likely to improve strongly are those that effectively integrate bus services, ensure convenient station access, and implement unified fare structures. Without these crucial elements, India may continue to build metros that are operationally sound but consistently underperform against their original projections, leaving a significant portion of their capacity unused and the initial investment underutilized. The focus must shift from simply laying tracks to truly connecting communities.
Observers will be watching for policy shifts that address affordability and integration in the coming years.
Key Takeaways
— - India's metro network has expanded significantly, with over $26 billion invested since 2014, yet ridership often falls far short of projections.
— - Factors like high fares, infrequent trains, poor last-mile connectivity, and safety concerns deter potential passengers.
— - Demand projections are frequently inflated to justify project viability, leading to operational underperformance.
— - Delhi's metro, while appearing successful, achieves higher ridership figures partly by counting interchanges as separate trips.
Source: BBC News