An El Nino weather event is 80 percent likely to develop between June and August 2026, World Meteorological Organization scientists said Tuesday. The probability climbs to 90 percent or higher by November. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called it "an urgent climate warning" that will "pour fuel on the fire of a warming world."
Sea-surface temperatures in the central-eastern Equatorial Pacific were already approaching El Nino thresholds in late April through mid-May, according to WMO observations drawn from multiple monitoring platforms. The readings are not a minor fluctuation. They signal a reservoir of excess heat below the surface across the tropical Pacific, where temperatures have exceeded 6C above average.
That subsurface anomaly is what feeds the surface warming now being detected. "We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Nino event, which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall, and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean," WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said. The last El Nino, during 2023-24, ranked among the five strongest on record. Saulo linked it directly to the record global temperatures seen in 2024, when the world's average temperature exceeded the 1.5C threshold above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average for the first time.
That single year rewrote the climate baseline. If this El Nino materializes as forecast, 2027 has a clear path to becoming the next record-breaker. Guterres delivered his warning in a video statement. "The science is clear: El Nino is arriving on our doorstep in the coming months with 90% certainty," he said. "El Nino conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world.
Impacts will hit even harder, travel even farther and cross borders with speed."
His language carried more edge than typical UN communiqués. "The only effective response is climate action equal to the crisis – ending the addiction to fossil fuels, accelerating the shift to renewables, protecting the most vulnerable and delivering early warning systems for all."
Forecast models from the WMO's global producing centres, national meteorological services, and climate prediction centres around the world fed into the assessment. The International Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia University co-produced the update. The WMO called it "the most authoritative source of information for governments, humanitarian agencies and climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, health, energy and water management."
An atmospheric climate model analyzed separately showed conditions consistent with a developing El Nino, adding an independent data point to the ocean-temperature readings. No single model drives the forecast. The consensus across multiple systems is what pushed the probability numbers to 80 percent for the June-August window.
The mechanism is straightforward. El Nino warms tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures, which alters atmospheric circulation patterns globally. The result: shifted rainfall belts, intensified droughts in some regions, flooding in others, and a net boost to global average temperatures on top of the long-term warming trend driven by fossil fuel emissions.
The 2023-24 El Nino offers a preview. Australia saw drought conditions deepen across its eastern agricultural zones. The Horn of Africa swung from prolonged drought to torrential rains.
South American fisheries took losses as warmer waters disrupted marine ecosystems. Global commodity prices moved on crop forecasts that shifted with each new seasonal outlook. Insurance markets noticed.
Reinsurers tightened terms after the last cycle, pushing climate risk onto sovereign balance sheets in vulnerable countries. The timing matters here: another strong El Nino arriving while those adjustments remain fresh could accelerate the retreat of private capital from high-exposure markets. Why It Matters:
A strong El Nino in 2026 raises the probability that 2027 sets a new global temperature record, just three years after the last one. That acceleration challenges the assumption that 1.5C breaches are isolated anomalies rather than a structural shift. For governments negotiating climate finance commitments, for insurers pricing risk, and for farmers making planting decisions, the forecast changes the near-term calculation.
A record-hot 2027 would also become a political fact in every national election cycle that follows. The forecast timeline matters operationally. If the event locks in by August, the Southern Hemisphere's summer growing season would feel the effects directly.
Wheat and corn belts in Australia, South Africa, and South America would face altered rainfall patterns. Southeast Asian rice production, sensitive to monsoon timing, would see shifting planting windows. Energy markets are already mapping scenarios.
A warmer Pacific typically means weaker monsoon winds over India, reducing wind generation. Drier conditions in Colombia and parts of Central America lower hydroelectric output, increasing reliance on expensive thermal backup. Heatwaves spike electricity demand in ways that test reserve margins in markets from Texas to Tokyo.
Saulo emphasized that the WMO community would be "carefully monitoring conditions in the coming months to inform decision-making by governments, humanitarian agencies and climate-sensitive sectors." She called advance seasonal forecasts and early warnings "vital to save lives and cushion the impact on our economies and our communities."
Guterres tied the weather forecast directly to energy policy. His phrase "ending the addiction to fossil fuels" was not a climate aspiration layered onto a weather bulletin. It was a specific call for governments to treat the forecast as actionable, not theoretical.
The equatorial Pacific subsurface is the leading indicator. Those warmer-than-average waters at depth will keep feeding the surface signal for months regardless of short-term atmospheric variability. The question is not whether an El Nino will develop.
The models have answered that. The remaining uncertainty is peak strength and duration. Historical analogs suggest caution about predicting intensity.
The 2015-16 El Nino became one of the strongest ever recorded, contributing to what was then the hottest year on record. The 2018-19 event stayed weak and had muted global effects. The range of outcomes matters for governments that must mobilize disaster-response resources before they know the full scale of what they are responding to.
The WMO's next update will narrow that range. If subsurface warmth continues to intensify through June, the probability of a strong event ticks higher. If atmospheric coupling lags, it may stay moderate.
Key Takeaways:
- WMO scientists put El Nino probability at 80% for June-August 2026, rising to 90% or higher by November. - UN Secretary-General Guterres called the forecast "an urgent climate warning" and demanded accelerated fossil fuel phase-out. - The last El Nino pushed 2024 to the hottest year on record; the next one makes 2027 a strong candidate to break it. - Agriculture, energy, and insurance sectors face near-term operational impacts beyond the headline temperature numbers. The WMO will issue its next consensus update within weeks. Government disaster agencies will begin scenario planning.
Commodity traders will adjust positions. And the equatorial Pacific will keep warming, indifferent to all of it. Watch the subsurface temperature anomalies in the central-eastern Pacific.
If they hold above 3C through July, a strong event becomes the base case, not the tail risk.
Key Takeaways
— - WMO scientists put El Nino probability at 80% for June-August 2026, rising to 90% or higher by November.
— - UN Secretary-General Guterres called the forecast 'an urgent climate warning' and demanded accelerated fossil fuel phase-out.
— - The last El Nino pushed 2024 to the hottest year on record; the next one makes 2027 a strong candidate to break it.
— - Agriculture, energy, and insurance sectors face near-term operational impacts beyond the headline temperature numbers.
Source: The Independent
