The CEOs of Europe's largest airlines told the European Union in March that its 2030 sustainable aviation fuel mandate is impossible to meet. Ryanair, IAG, Lufthansa and Air France-KLM said the 6% blending requirement cannot be reached due to the high cost and extreme scarcity of the fuel. Luis Gallego, CEO of British Airways' parent IAG, called for an urgent strategy "to have SAF at competitive prices," Reuters reported.
The fuel in question is sustainable aviation fuel, or SAF. It can cut emissions by 50% to nearly 100% compared to conventional jet fuel. The problem is not the technology.
It is the math. SAF accounted for just 0.3% of global jet fuel production in 2024. The International Air Transport Association called that take-up rate "disappointing." The group estimates the share will reach only 0.7% in 2025.
The gap between that reality and the EU's 2030 target is a chasm. Cost is the anchor dragging on the entire enterprise. SAF costs between two and seven times more than traditional kerosene jet fuel.
That price gap exists because the feedstocks—primarily used cooking oil in Europe—are limited. Scaling production to lower costs has proven stubbornly difficult. Meanwhile, fossil jet fuel enjoys wide-ranging tax exemptions that keep its price artificially low.
Luis Gallego did not mince words. Without competitive pricing, he said, "the only realistic solution is to move the 2030 SAF mandate to the right." The EU pushed back immediately. A spokesperson called the targets "realistic and feasible."
The policy says one thing. The reality says another. Airlines are already passing the cost to passengers.
Lufthansa has tacked a mandatory SAF levy onto tickets. The German flag carrier charges up to 72 euros per flight. The fee varies by route and fare class.
Air France-KLM has done the same. Singapore is taking a different path. From 2026, all flights departing the city-state must use 1% SAF.
Travellers will pay a levy. The Civil Aviation Authority of Singapore estimates economy passengers will pay an extra S$3 for short-haul flights. Long-haul passengers face a S$16 surcharge.
Singapore wants to become a regional SAF hub. The levy is the price of that ambition. Other airlines offer a voluntary option.
British Airways encourages loyalty programme members to contribute toward SAF. They can pay with and earn points on the contribution. Spanish low-cost carrier Vueling, also owned by IAG, asks passengers to chip in for SAF equivalent to 2% of the fuel needed for their trip.
Vueling matches the contribution. What this actually means for your family. A family of four flying from Frankfurt to New York on Lufthansa could pay nearly 300 euros extra in SAF levies.
The cost of a cleaner conscience is becoming a line item on a ticket. The feedstock challenge is a global puzzle with local pieces. Europe leans heavily on used cooking oil.
It is classified as a recycled waste product. That means it does not compete with food crops for land. It carries a lower deforestation risk than virgin oils from soybeans or palm.
The United States is betting on soy. Brazil is pushing palm oil. Both agricultural powerhouses are also expected to produce large volumes of SAF by converting ethanol from corn or sugarcane.
That process creates a fuel known as alcohol-to-jet. Then there is the dream of synthetic fuel. E-SAF, or power-to-liquid SAF, is made from green hydrogen and captured carbon dioxide.
It can slash emissions by up to 90%. It requires no crops. No waste oil.
The catch is the price. E-SAF remains prohibitively expensive to manufacture. Airlines and fuel producers are pressing governments for more financial support to bring the cost down.
The International Energy Agency paints a stark picture. Existing and advanced-stage SAF projects will meet just 2% to 4% of jet fuel demand by 2030. That falls far short of what is needed to put aviation on a path to net zero by 2050.
The industry's green dream is colliding with the hard limits of chemistry and economics. Fraud is another crack in the system. The world's leading certification body is the industry-led International Sustainability and Carbon Certification, or ISCC.
It issues certificates used by EU regulators to prove the origin and sustainability of SAF. Approved third-party auditors inspect producers and traders. If standards are met, the ISCC stamp is granted.
But guaranteeing sustainability through complex supply chains is difficult. For used cooking oil, suppliers at the point of origin—restaurants, individuals—fill out a self-declaration form. The ISCC verification system has drawn criticism.
European industry members and national regulators say it fails to catch fraud in biodiesel supplies. In 2024, the ISCC conducted 79 integrity assessments. Around two-thirds targeted Asia-based suppliers.
A third of the cases showed violations of certification requirements. Eleven certificates were withdrawn. Both sides claim victory.
Here are the numbers. The EU wants 6% by 2030. The IEA says projects will supply 2% to 4%.
Mandates are spreading. The EU and UK introduced the world's first SAF blending requirements in January 2025. Fuel suppliers must blend at least 2% SAF with conventional kerosene.
The requirement rises to 32% in the EU and 22% in the UK by 2040. Singapore and Brazil will enforce mandates in the coming years. Japan and China plan to introduce targets.
The United States has chosen a different route: direct subsidies and tax credits instead of mandates. Aviation's carbon footprint is relatively small today—about 2.5% of all energy-related emissions. But that share is set to grow.
Other sectors, like road transport, are cutting emissions by switching to electric vehicles. Commercial aircraft have no such near-term technological escape. Demand for flying keeps rising.
The world's appetite for air travel grows every year. Governments set targets based on climate goals. Industries say the targets are physically impossible.
Consumers pay the price either way—through higher ticket costs or a warming planet. For millions of working families who rely on affordable air travel to see relatives across borders, the SAF levy is not an abstract policy debate. It is a new tax on family connections. - The CEOs of Ryanair, IAG, Lufthansa and Air France-KLM say the 2030 target is impossible to meet. - Fraud in the used cooking oil supply chain threatens the integrity of the entire certification system.
The next flashpoint is already on the calendar. The EU's 6% mandate does not kick in until 2030, but the interim targets will tighten each year. Fuel suppliers must hit 2% this year.
Every percentage point increase will test the market's ability to deliver. Watch for the 2026 compliance reports. If the gap between mandate and reality widens, the calls to "move the mandate to the right" will grow louder.
Airlines and governments are on a collision course. The only question is who blinks first.
Key Takeaways
— - Sustainable aviation fuel made up just 0.3% of global jet fuel in 2024; the EU requires 6% by 2030.
— - The CEOs of Ryanair, IAG, Lufthansa and Air France-KLM say the 2030 target is impossible to meet.
— - SAF costs two to seven times more than fossil jet fuel, and airlines are adding mandatory levies of up to 72 euros per ticket.
— - Fraud in the used cooking oil supply chain threatens the integrity of the entire certification system.
Source: Climate Home News
